Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on Linkedin. More importantly, discussions on such issues must include many more political and civil actors beyond those now in conflict if at least a degree of national consensus is to be achieved. Is the Nobel Peace Prize Brand Damage Reversible? Therefore, Ethiopia uses a “one health” approach to its GHSA activities by bringing together human and animal health partners, recognizing that the health of people is connected to the health of animals and the environment. Further, the TPLF’s historic capacity to wage guerrilla warfare from the rural mountains of Tigray may not be definitively eroded by its losses in conventional warfare. Grants & Fellowships It is unclear what a successful strategy for the federal government will be if it is able to capture Tigray’s urban centers but cannot command the widespread acceptance of Tigray’s people. Even without the impact of COVID-19 and the situation in Tigray, Ethiopia’s next national elections are fraught with difficulty. In 2019, more than 4 billion trees were planted, and in 2020 there is an ongoing effort to plant 5 billion seedlings. The challenges faced in administering elections are significant. War sometimes starts like clockwork but predicting the date on which a conflict will end often leads to disappointment. While some in the federal government have indicated that they would accept a refashioned TPLF led by moderates, external efforts to re-engineer the party may well be counterproductive and only risk further alienating some Tigrayan constituencies. Ethiopian PM issues 72-hour deadline for Tigrayan forces to surrender. Additionally, Ethiopia is prone to climate-related shocks and disease outbreaks. January 13, 2020. Substantial efforts are needed to reduce political tensions ahead of elections in 2021. According to the New Poverty Index, about 90% of the … By. As NEBE explained, several important preparatory tasks were unable to be completed in March, meaning that the crucial voter registration exercise, which was expected to register tens of millions of prospective voters, was unable to commence in April. The reform process has been largely elite-driven and concentrated in Addis Ababa, and there is a lack of clarity on a specific road map to achieving the goals set out by the prime minister.” While there has been some important progress since that assessment was made, conducting elections in Ethiopia will be the largest democratic exercise in the country’s history; the technical challenges should not be underestimated and cannot easily be expedited. Ethiopia’s Conflict: A War Won to Preserve the Nation-State. Ethiopia has close historical ties to all three of the world's major Abrahamic religions.Christians form the majority of the population. Violent incidents involving unidentified armed groups have been reported on an almost daily basis, mainly in the Western Oromia region, while several thousand people were reportedly displaced by inter-communal violence in Konso zone, SNNPR on 16 November.” Alas, any short-term increase in perceived or real Ethiopian national unity resulting from the current Tigray confrontation does little to address the problems of arbitrary detention or intercommunal violence elsewhere in the country. Analysis and Commentary. By: The TPLF has made counterclaims: that it inflicted significant casualties on federal forces in Raya and to have repulsed federal forces in Mehoni and Zalambessa. The polls are expected to be the first competitive elections since 2005 and raise fundamental questions about the future order of the Ethiopian state. Abiy’s new political vehicle, the Ethiopian Prosperity Party, is the national frontrunner, constructed from the former Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front ruling coalition, which was once led by the TPLF. Further, as the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs pointed out on November 20, “Humanitarian partners in Ethiopia are further concerned about the increasing report of violence in Oromia and Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples (SNNP) regions. Beyond the national polls, each regional state of Ethiopia is also due to hold elections for their state legislatures. As violence continues over control of the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray, Ethiopia’s future remains unsettled, even if the conflict ends soon. In May, Amnesty International reported that at least 10,000 people had been “arbitrarily arrested and detained last year as part of the government’s crackdown on armed attacks and violence in Oromia Region,” and in July, that another 5,000 had been arrested following protests the previous month. As the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) militia and special forces learned that they are about to lose Maikadra town to the Ethiopian Defense Forces and Amhara region special forces – that rescued besieged Ethiopian Defense Forces following November 4 -, they massacred what is said to be now over 1000 unarmed civilians. In May, the NEBE proposed two scenarios on which to base a prospective electoral calendar: the first required 224 days to prepare for and conduct elections, and the second required 276 days. The incumbent, the opposition, legal scholars and political scientists took center stage. More importantly, discussions on such issues must include many more political and civil actors beyond those now in conflict if at least a degree of national consensus is to be achieved. Seemingly both regional governments, federal governments, and large swaths of the people galvanizing around the [federal] government.”. Ethiopian Public Health Institute (EPHI) and CDC lab experts conducting a COVID-19 lab test at the EPHI Reference lab. The dam’s power will also help with similar problems in Sudan, Kenya and Djibouti, all of which are connected to Ethiopia’s grid and will begin importing power from it in the coming years. Without much delay, discussions on the technical issues related to the dam’s construction, filling, and maintenance also started among Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt in November 2011, a few months before Hosni Mubarak’s government was overthrown in Cairo. 28 November 2020. Publications Achieving the federal government’s security objectives in Tigray is unlikely to resolve both new and entrenched political challenges, and already delayed national elections, now expected in 2021, may prove a severe test of Ethiopia’s political order, and consequently affect broader regional stability. Desert Locust situation update 3 December 2020 Intense swarm invasion of Kenya likely from mid-December onwards Substantial breeding and large numbers of hopper bands continue to develop within a vast area of eastern Ethiopia and central Somalia where ground and aerial control operations are in progress. The Ethiopian Civil War is A Symptom of US Foreign Policy Dysfunction, Somaliland Opposition Leader Calls for Ceasefire in Ethiopia. While wider questions of reconciliation, reform, and elections cannot be the first point on the agenda in any eventual negotiations between the federal government and the TPLF, discussing them cannot be indefinitely avoided, either. Projects Ethiopia: Running On Fumes - Ethiopian Tourism in 2020. The challenges faced in administering elections are significant. Moreover, the federal government must soon confront an even bigger problem in 2021: how to conduct peaceful and credible elections. Ethiopia’s leader has gained the upper hand in confronting an uprising in the country’s northernmost region of Tigray. Moreover, the federal government must soon confront an even bigger problem in 2021: how to conduct peaceful and credible elections. Ethiopian PM issues 72-hour deadline for Tigrayan forces to … Substantial efforts are needed to reduce political tensions ahead of elections in 2021. Achieving the federal government’s security objectives in Tigray is unlikely to resolve both new and entrenched political challenges, and already delayed national elections, now … BY TAARIFA RWANDADecember 3, 2020 Ethiopia has the largest number of Read more. Further, as the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs pointed out on November 20, “Humanitarian partners in Ethiopia are further concerned about the increasing report of violence in Oromia and Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples (SNNP) regions. Further, the TPLF’s historic capacity to wage guerrilla warfare from the rural mountains of Tigray may not be definitively eroded by its losses in conventional warfare. Dr Debretsion Gebremichael, president of Tigray regional state, and 62 others face “terrorism, grand corruption, human rights violation and treason charges”, Federal … Citation Daley, B. Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Tibor Nagy told journalists on November 19 that “it seems like [the conflict in Tigray] has brought the Ethiopian nation together, at least for the time being, in support of the prime minister …” Ambassador Raynor added that “the rest of the country actually remains quite calm at present, no indications of anyone taking up comparable actions elsewhere, and in fact the opposite. Only once these processes [of constitutional and electoral reform] are completed should an electoral timeline be consulted and announced, and preparations begin in earnest.”. 108. Journalist Tom Gardner spent weeks collecting their testimonies amid talk that the mine could be set to re-open, even though the government has not publicly addressed local grievances. 13 July 2020 Exposed, silenced, attacked: failures to protect health and essential workers during the COVID-19 pandemic Research _taboola.push({ target_type: 'mix' By: Aly Verjee. Ambassador to Ethiopia Michael Raynor told journalists on November 19 that “another aspect of this is the Ethiopian government continues to articulate a vision of the military conflict coming to an end fairly soon, a week or two from now.”. All rights reserved. Achieving the federal government’s security objectives in Tigray is unlikely to resolve both new and entrenched political challenges, and already delayed national elections, now expected in 2021, may prove a severe test of Ethiopia’s political order, and consequently affect broader regional stability. The current Ethiopian regime has recognized in its constitution the right of self-determination with serious limitations imposed on the exercise of the right. Reconciling the electoral process with efforts for reconciliation and national dialogue is now even more imperative. (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); window._taboola = window._taboola || []; For the federal government, taking control of the state capital of Tigray, and its largest city, Mekelle, is now the principal remaining tactical military objective. Updated 4:00 PM ET, Sun November 22, 2020 . In May, the NEBE proposed two scenarios on which to base a prospective electoral calendar: the first required 224 days to prepare for and conduct elections, and the second required 276 days. The second, more profound problem in conducting elections concerns broader needs for security, trust, reconciliation, and the ability of Ethiopians to freely engage in open political discourse, debate, and campaigning. Ethiopia. More recently, NEBE has noted that the possibility of constitutional and electoral reform could also complicate the electoral calendar and has warned, “Preparations for electoral process based on [an] unstable timeline are not advisable. ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia, March 5, 2020/APO Group/ — The U.S. Embassy in Addis Ababa launchedR. For their part, American officials have asserted that the conflict in Tigray has served to unite Ethiopians. Posted on December 2, 2020 December 2, 2020. Published November 22, 2020 2:00 pm . While the fighting of the last few weeks may have significantly degraded the TPLF’s military capacity, it is unlikely that the federal government can entirely subdue the TPLF as a political entity, which retains the support of a substantial number of Tigrayans. However, even if Abiy’s military objectives are quickly achieved, experiences of warfare in northern Ethiopia dating back a century suggest that it is much easier to capture territory than it is to hold it. The second, more profound problem in conducting elections concerns broader needs for security, trust, reconciliation, and the ability of Ethiopians to freely engage in open political discourse, debate, and campaigning. 2 Dec 2020 Ethiopia and the United Nations have reached an agreement to channel desperately needed humanitarian aid to a northern region where a … USIP’s Aly Verjee and Susan Stigant discuss the crisis and identify what could be done to avoid further violent conflict in east Africa’s most populous country. P. roponents of the two dominant views on the COVID-19 induced Ethiopian constitutional crisis have now coalesced to articulate their proposed pathways on the current predicament along two main tracks.. As rising violence in Ethiopia threatens to pull neighboring Eritrea into the fray, USIP’s Susan Stigant says, “There is a real need for some external, independent investigator to help diffuse some of that escalation” and look into disturbing reports of human rights violations stemming from the conflict. Despite limitations on independent reporting and the severing of most communications, the federal government has announced significant military advances, capturing a number of important towns and cities in Tigray, including Shire on November 17, Axum and Adwa on November 20, and Adigrat on November 21. However, even if Abiy’s military objectives are quickly achieved, experiences of warfare in northern Ethiopia dating back a century suggest that it is much easier to capture territory than it is to hold it. 2.6% of the population (mainly in the far south and southwest) follow traditional religions; other religions (the Baháʼí Faith, Judaism, etc.) Press An adequate response necessitates efforts at reconciliation, justice, and inclusive dialogue. “The root cause of political problems in Ethiopia is national oppression by the Ethiopian empire state and refusal by the state to respect the rights of oppressed peoples to self-determination. }); © 2001 – 2020 Puntland Post. ADDIS ABEBA – The Ethiopian government has issued on Thursday arrest warrants on 64 top officials of Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Share Tweet. A number of prominent political figures and journalists were jailed before the Tigray conflict began, and more arrests of journalists have followed this month. Even before the conflict with Tigray, there were more than 1.8 million internally displaced persons in Ethiopia. Apart from the TPLF, a number of new opposition political parties are expected to contest the polls. Unfortunately, violence has continued elsewhere in Ethiopia. Ethiopian Prime Minister, … As early as December 2018, a USAID pre-elections assessment found that “there is a lack of consensus about specific solutions and timing of reforms in relation to the election cycle, and that information about and support for the reforms is inconsistent. Ethiopian Monitor #Ethiopia, #Tigray, #Tplf. While wider questions of reconciliation, reform, and elections cannot be the first point on the agenda in any eventual negotiations between the federal government and the TPLF, discussing them cannot be indefinitely avoided, either. For their part, American officials have asserted that the conflict in Tigray has served to unite Ethiopians. While in February 2020, the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) announced that elections would be held in August 2020, by the end of March, the Board had decided to indefinitely delay the elections because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Beyond the national polls, each regional state of Ethiopia is also due to hold elections for their state legislatures. Susan Stigant, director of Africa Programs at the U.S. Institute of Peace, testified on December 3, 2020 at the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights and International Organization's hearing on “The Unfolding Conflict in Ethiopia.” Her expert testimony as prepared is presented below. National elections are overdue and are now expected to be held next year. Reconciling the electoral process with efforts for reconciliation and national dialogue is now even more imperative. While some in the federal government have indicated that they would accept a refashioned TPLF led by moderates, external efforts to re-engineer the party may well be counterproductive and only risk further alienating some Tigrayan constituencies. Ethiopia’s Problems Will Not End with a Military Victory. Even before the conflict with Tigray, there were more than 1.8 million internally displaced persons in Ethiopia. It is unclear what a successful strategy for the federal government will be if it is able to capture Tigray’s urban centers but cannot command the widespread acceptance of Tigray’s people. container: 'taboola-right-rail-thumbnails', USIP has a variety of newsletters and announcements with the latest analysis, publications and events. Ethiopia is blessed with abundance of natural resources such as gold, Potash, unexploited natural gas or Methane, copper and platinum. SHARES. For successful elections to be held, credibly and non-coercively addressing both insecurity and the underlying grievances behind the violence will be essential. Ethiopia: Major battle looms as PM Abiy issues ultimatum to Tigray. Poverty results in problems in sanitation, access to water and health services, malnutrition, and land tenure which are detrimental to the majority of the population. Violent incidents involving unidentified armed groups have been reported on an almost daily basis, mainly in the Western Oromia region, while several thousand people were reportedly displaced by inter-communal violence in Konso zone, SNNPR on 16 November.” Alas, any short-term increase in perceived or real Ethiopian national unity resulting from the current Tigray confrontation does little to address the problems of arbitrary detention or intercommunal violence elsewhere in the country. Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Tibor Nagy told journalists on November 19 that “it seems like [the conflict in Tigray] has brought the Ethiopian nation together, at least for the time being, in support of the prime minister …” Ambassador Raynor added that “the rest of the country actually remains quite calm at present, no indications of anyone taking up comparable actions elsewhere, and in fact the opposite. Ethiopia’s economy experienced strong, broad-based growth averaging 9.8% a year from 2008/09 to 2018/19, Ethiopia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rebounded to 9% in 2018/19. More recently, NEBE has noted that the possibility of constitutional and electoral reform could also complicate the electoral calendar and has warned, “Preparations for electoral process based on [an] unstable timeline are not advisable. Yet from the start of armed hostilities with the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed promised the conflict would be swift and decisive. These issues, their links to the Ethiopian economy, and their implications for economic growth, are the subject of this rapid, desk-based study. But his tough actions have unleashed a torrent of problems. Therefore, as focused on their immediate objectives and consequently as reluctant to seek dialogue and compromise as they may be, the parties in conflict may find that a negotiated settlement may ultimately be the only realistic choice, if not imminently, then in the months ahead. Tuesday, November 24, 2020 As NEBE explained, several important preparatory tasks were unable to be completed in March, meaning that the crucial voter registration exercise, which was expected to register tens of millions of prospective voters, was unable to commence in April. Squaring the electoral preparations and timetable with a plan for reconciliation and national dialogue may thus be imperative for a peaceful future in Ethiopia. Violent conflict between the federal government of Ethiopia and the federal state of Tigray, in the country’s north, began November 4 and quickly escalated. vitag.videoDiscoverConfig = { random: true, noFixedVideo: true }; (vitag.Init = window.vitag.Init || []).push(function(){viAPItag.initInstreamBanner("vi_31698886")}); (vitag.Init = window.vitag.Init || []).push(function(){viAPItag.display("vi_31698887")}). On November 6, Abiy wrote that “operations by federal defense forces underway in Northern Ethiopia have clear, limited and achievable objectives.” On November 9, the prime minister said the military operation “will wrap up soon,” and the next day, that “our law enforcement operations in Tigray are proceeding as planned: operations will cease as soon as the criminal junta is disarmed, legitimate administration in the region restored, and fugitives apprehended and brought to justice—all of them rapidly coming within reach.” Claims that the conflict will be short-lived have also been echoed by senior American officials: U.S. JUST WATCHED Why are there fears of civil war in Ethiopia? Replay. As violence continues over control of the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray, Ethiopia’s future remains unsettled, even if the conflict ends soon. As violence continues over control of the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray, Ethiopia’s future remains unsettled, even if the conflict ends soon. 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